After the 2014 midterm elections, professional pundits and politicians have once again started saying that the Keystone XL pipeline is destined for approval.

We’ve heard this story before. In fact, it’s the story the climate movement has been told every single day since we took on this fight against Keystone XL in 2011. And just as consistently, we’ve defied conventional wisdom, and kept millions of barrels of oil underground, costing Big Oil billions of dollars.

Here’s a quick tour of all the times conventional DC wisdom has been wrong about Keystone XL:

2011: “Pipeline from Canada may already have U.S. backing In mid-2011, pundits seize on Sec. State Clinton’s comments that she is ‘inclined’ to approve the pipeline to say Keystone XL is a done deal. Instead, a corruption scandal in the State Department forces them to eat their words, and State to back off their previous assessment.

2011: ” Insiders: Obama Will Approve Keystone XL Pipeline This Year A poll of DC insiders predicts the pipeline will be OK’d by the end of the year. Instead he pushed back a decision and set the stage for a first rejection in 2012. A key quote: “Do you really think the White House would kill this in an election year during which the prime issue is jobs? I don’t. It will be sold as ‘environmentally sensitive’ construction.”

2012: “Both Sides Agree: Keystone Pipeline Will Be Approved After the November ElectionAfter beating the odds in 2011, everyone agrees the pipeline will be built after Pres. Obama’s re-election in 2012. No decision is made.

2013: “Former State Department Official Convinced Keystone XL Will Be Approved In 2013, PM Harper’s government enters a feverish lobbying campaign to push President Obama to approve the pipeline. They enlist former State Dept. officials, and make countless visits to Washington and spend millions on ads, all to be swamped by a massive grassroots uprising that submits over a million comments against the pipeline to the State Department.

2013: “Obama will approve Keystone XL pipeline, CEO says Claiming the pipeline is a done deal is a favorite tactic of TransCanada, in the hope they can demoralize the movement that has risen against them. They’ve been wrong every single time.

And so here we are in 2014. It’s true, Big Oil has managed to send more pro-Keystone candidates to Congress than ever.

But unconventional action has beaten conventional wisdom time and time again. What really matters in this fight isn’t their money, it’s our courage — and with the stakes clearer than ever, that courage will not be in short supply in the weeks and months to come.

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