Floods, wildfires, tropical storms, drought.

Food crisis, water shortage, displacement, conflict. The impacts of the climate crisis are already everywhere and affect people deeply – hitting harder those in most vulnerable areas or social conditions, who have often contributed the least to worsening this emergency.

The science is clear:

the planet is heating and we are causing it. And it is also up to us to solve this crisis, ensuring a liveable and equitable future for everyone.

1. It's Warming.

Right now, the Earth’s surface temperature is about 1.3° Celsius hotter than industrialization in the late 1800s.

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Global Temperature Index (NASA)

Earth has always experienced natural warming and cooling cycles. What we are seeing now is different and concerning. Climate scientists say “every decade since 1850 has been warmer than the last four decades”. The ten hottest years have all happened since 2000, because of human activity.

Rising temperatures don’t just mean hotter weather. Earth’s climate is complex. Even small rises in global temperature can lead to big changes. These changes can have dangerous effects on entire ecosystems and mean life and death for millions of people.  

The global 2015 Paris Agreement set 1.5ºC as the critical heating limit we can’t afford to cross. According to scientific research (and our People’s Dossier on 1.5˚C), surpassing this will trigger climate “tipping points”. Meaning, we will start seeing “sudden, permanent, and dangerous changes” with serious effects on humanity if we don’t stop global heating right away. 

And the reality is dire: a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that at our current pace, the world could very well get 1.5˚C hotter as soon as 2040. That’s less than 20 years away and within most of our lifetimes. In fact, 2024 became the first year that was more than 1.5 °C hotter than pre-industrial levels. Now, even if all countries deliver on their promises to cut emissions by 2030, we’re still on track for a 2.7˚C rise by 2100.  

Scientists warn that if we reach a 2.7˚C rise, many parts of the world will face “unbearable heat” and even more unpredictable weather. Wildlife will vanish, food shortages will occur, cities, and other human systems will be damaged.

GRAPH: NASA TIME SERIES: 1884 TO 2021

Caption: Interactive time series showing average planetary temperature, from 1884 to 2021. Source: NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio (NASA Time Series)

2. It’s Us.

Humans are causing climate change by burning fossil fuels, the science is clear.

Before the 1700s, our atmosphere had around 280 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide (CO2). This was the level of carbon that life on Earth, including humans, had adapted to. But things started to change when parts of Europe and North America began burning coal, oil, and gas to power transport and factories – what is known as the “Industrial Revolution”.

Since then, the use of fossil fuels spread very quickly worldwide, making carbon in the atmosphere shoot up. In 2002, we had 365 parts per million of CO2, and nearly 25  years later we’re now over 420 ppm. Many climate scientists consider 350 ppm the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2 to maintain a stable climate. And we’ve already exceeded the threshold for climate safety by a significant margin. Learn more about why this matters at 350. 

As the use of fossil fuels spreads through the world, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere is skyrocketing. In 2002 we were at 365 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, and just two decades later we’re crossing 420 ppm.

Another factor in the rapid rise in other dangerous greenhouse gasses like methane is that wealthier countries’ demand for meat and dairy has driven more livestock farming. Agriculture now causes about 15% of all emissions. 

Burning fossil fuels remains the major issue because carbon dioxide remains  in the atmosphere much longer than methane and other greenhouse gasses. In 2021, it accounted for 89% of the energy sector’s greenhouse gas emissions and in 2024, global fossil CO2 emissions were the highest ever recorded. Keeping fossil fuels in the ground is the most important step we can take to stop climate change.

Source: NOAA

3. We’re Sure.

There is no real debate about the basic science of climate change: 99% of scientists agree that humans are causing it. 

We’ve known since the 1890s that more CO2 in the atmosphere heats the planet. Groups that stand to lose money often attack climate science. Fossil fuel companies, in particular, spend millions to create doubt about climate change.

Oil and gas giants, Exxon and TotalEnergies have known about climate change since the 1970s. They understood that taking action could hurt their profits. So they have been covering up the truth, funding lies and deception, and misleading shareholders and the public for decades. 

Between the 2015 Paris Agreement and 2019, the top five oil companies spent a combined US$1 billion on misleading climate-related branding and lobbying. Even today, they are actively fighting to maintain fossil fuels for decades to come. Their greed, combined with government inaction, has created our current crisis. We now live in a world where billionaires hoard extreme wealth, while the rest of us face rising costs, worsening inequality, and a climate crisis. Just 1% of people own more wealth than 95% of us combined, all while destroying our planet.  

Believing these profit-driven companies and denying the climate crisis means ignoring established scientific facts  and generations of Indigenous, local, and traditional knowledge. Local communities and Indigenous Peoples manage 50% or more of the world’s land, including 54% of the world’s remaining intact forests. Their customary practices ensure that lands often see lower rates of deforestation and degradation than lands managed by public or private entities. As Brazilian Indigenous leader Ailton Krenak explains, “People think climate change is something for the future, but we live inside our forests for a long time. […] We live on the Earth through the constant interaction between people and nature.” 

The ‘debate’ is OVER. Scientist march for action on climate change. Photo credit: Road to Paris

4. It’s Bad.

We’re already living with the damage of 1.3°C of global warming, with some of us being hit much harder than others..

According to the IPCC report, 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in areas highly exposed to climate risks. If emissions continue, by 2100, up to 75% of the global population could face life-threatening conditions from extreme heat and rainfall.

Food and water systems are under serious stress. Grain yields are falling, and seasonal changes are making farming harder. Even if we limit warming to 1.5°C, 8% of current farmland could become unusable. In tropical Africa, fish production, crucial for one-third of the population’s protein consumption, could drop by 3% to 41%, worsening hunger.

Climate change is deepening social inequality. Vulnerable groups like women, youth, the elderly, Indigenous Peoples, refugees, and minorities face greater risks of poverty, food and water shortages, violence, and displacement.

Rising seas alone could force 10 million more people to migrate if warming reaches 2°C. And since 2008, extreme weather has already displaced over 20 million people every year.

While we need to quickly adapt to climate change, the way we do it remains deeply unequal. Most efforts are small, scattered, and leave out lower-income communities. Scientists warn that without faster, fairer action, the world will remain dangerously underprepared, especially beyond 1.5°C.

Caption: Interactive map showing how climate change affects extreme weather around the world. Source: CarbonBrief

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