Belém, Brazil – On the first day of COP30, the UN climate secretariat (UNFCCC) has released an update to its 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report, showing that global emissions are finally beginning to peak, but still fall far short of what’s needed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
A total of 113 Parties to the Paris Agreement have now submitted new or updated climate plans (NDCs) between January 2024 and November 2025. Together, these countries represent about 69% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019.
“Global emissions are finally nearing their peak, a long-awaited turning point, but we are still moving far too slowly. Current plans will only cut emissions by about 12% by 2035, when we need five times that to keep global temperature rise to 1.5°C. This is the moment to act – every second of delay locks in more climate damage. COP30 must treat these pledges as the ceiling, not the floor, and respond with a plan to bridge this perilous shortfall through a rapid, equitable transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy,” said Andreas Sieber, Associate Director of Policy and Campaigns, 350.org
Key Findings:
- With all the latest NDCs included, global emissions are projected to be around 12% lower by 2035 compared to 2019 levels.
- This marks a turning point: emissions are no longer rising and are beginning to level off – a key signal that global emissions may have peaked.
- However, to stay on track for the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit, emissions would need to fall by around 60% by 2035.
With emissions projected to fall by 12%, a decline in fossil fuel demand is expected. This underscores the need for a planned and orderly transition to prevent stranded assets and minimize social fallout. We need a fast, fair, and funded phase-out of fossil fuels to renewable energy to close the gap between the current country pledges and what’s needed to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.
Notes to Editors
Updated UNFCCC Synthesis Report PDF
Original UNFCCC NDC Synthesis Report 2025 released on 28th October 2025
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