FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
28th October 2025
UN Report on Countries Climate Targets (NDCs) offers “hope and stark warning”
Bonn, Germany – The United Nations has released its official NDC Synthesis Report assessing countries’ latest climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, a document that offers both a measure of progress and a stark warning, and highlights the need for a credible response to the climate ambition gap at COP30, according to the climate organization 350.org.
The report examines 64 updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted between January 2024 and September 2025. According to the findings, current pledges would collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions by only 17% below 2019 levels by 2035, a fraction of the roughly 60% global reduction required to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Several major emitters, including China and the European Union, have yet to submit their new targets, which could alter the overall picture in future updates.
Key information and findings:
- The report comprises the 64 countries representing approximately 30% of global GHG emissions on a 2019 baseline;
- 89% of NDCs provide economy-wide targets and 84% include all IPCC sectors, marking a clear progression from previous NDCs.
- Energy supply remains the top mitigation focus and is included in 98% of NDCs:
- 44% of NDCs include a commitment to triple renewable energy by 2030; 13% quantify coal phase down targets for 2030 and 16% do so for 2035;
- 73% mention just transition measures for fossil-dependent communities
- 47% of Parties (covering 9% of global fossil power in 2023) have quantitative targets to reduce unabated fossil generation by 2030.
- Notably, China and the EU, among several other major emitters are yet to be factored in.
- Collectively, these NDCs imply an 11% emission reduction by 2030 and 17% projected emission reduction below 2019 levels by 2035 among the 64 countries factored in the report;
Full implementation of all NDCs (including elements depending on financial or technical support) would lead to 19-24% reduction. 67% of analyzed NDCs included conditional elements; - By contrast the IPCC 1.5C pathway requires global emissions to fall approximately 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels and reach net zero by 2050.
- 88% of Parties provided cost information; 52% quantified total finance needs at approx. USD 1.97 trillion, of which:
- Approx USD 1.07tn is needed from international sources
- USD 214 billion from domestic
- USD 682 billion unspecified
Andreas Sieber, Associate Director of Policy and Campaigns at 350.org says:
“This synthesis report is both a progress update and a warning siren. Among the countries that have submitted new targets, emissions are projected to fall by just 11%, when science demands a 60% global cut. The world is moving, but in slow motion.
Renewables are booming and meet all new electricity demand this year and fossil fuels are finally showing signs of peaking. Yet, all progress is still far too slow.
The success of COP30 now hinges less on the maths of new targets and more on the politics closing the ambition gap and accelerating a fair and fast transition from fossil fuels to renewables.”
The report underscores that climate action is increasingly being tied to core national priorities like jobs, health, and energy security. 98% of countries have outlined domestic mitigation measures, and many are adopting a “whole-of-society” approach involving local governments, businesses, and communities.
Illan Zugman, 350.org Managing Director for Latin America
“Ten years on from Paris, governments are still allowing fossil fuel companies to call the shots. We see progress in words, but not yet in the numbers. Every new oil field or gas terminal wipes out the gains made in these NDCs. Just kilometres from where COP30 will take place, new licences are being given out. Real climate leadership means drawing the line on fossil fuels now. The science is brutally clear, we have the technology, the money, and the public support for a clean energy transition. What’s missing is political courage. Until we stop funding fossil fuels and start taxing their billions, we will keep losing precious time.”
International cooperation remains a critical driver of progress, with 97% of countries stressing the need for stronger partnerships to unlock finance, technology, and capacity-building for developing nations.
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